SmilingAssassin

Tues 9th Jan 07

Just a quick post
No matter how hard I have tried I don't think (I may be wrong) but I don't think that I have ever had a 3 months p&l of over 3k.So yesterday's 3 mth p&L has to represent one of my best betfair performances over the last 3/4 years that I have been using the betting exchanges

+2921 pounds, some good -some bad -if I had stayed away from Rugby,Darts and Pool things would of been nearly twice as good.

Couple of other things:- Take a duke at The Soccer Trader ,Punt and and Old Crystal Balls...

3mth Assassin

Sporting Diary 2007

January 2007

Football,Tennis & Cricket.First up it is incredibly important to avoid the horrendous Week1 of 2006.I will be treading very carefully in 2007,especially at the start.January will consist mainly of the usual Premiership & FA Cup Soccer,a spot of Champions League,perhaps some ERC Rugby (go easy -biggest loosing sport of the last two years)Some Tennis from 'Down Under' -Will Bank of Fed payout?And lots and lots of Test/ODI Cricket.Jan is a long month -it is one to 'pull on the tin hat' and dig in.A good start is vital as it was Week 13 of 2006 before I managed to 'bring home the bacon' in 2006 Click to understand more about Pay Packets.Oh almost forgot -www.BETDAQ.com

Feb 2007

Last 32 of UEFA Cup,CL,Six Nations and some dodgy Cricket. My first profitable month of 2006 again some caution is reqd -the reason being that it leads into March 2007 which is a 'Target Month' due to the start of the Cricket World Cup 07.It is important to build momentum before going into March.It is also important to realise that the ODI Cricket in Feb will be Mickey Mouse and extremely dangerous for my hard earned dough!

March 2007 (Target Month)

Cricket WC 07,Last 16 CL,FA Cup Qtr finals,More Six Nations and of course Cheltenham.My first of two 'Target Months' in 2007 -the other being Sept (RWC 07).Money to be made and a slightly more dangerous strategy may well be introduced.In the 2003 Cricket WC I made a profit of just under 3 grand.In I don't know how many matches?How many favourites lost? The answer None -not one!This could be a big month for Ireland -what odds a WC and Six Nations Double,perhaps bf should open a market?On a more serious note -Ireland to win the Six Nations? Almost forgot the Target?-I made 1500+ pounds in June 06  -this will again be my target.

April 2007

Masters Golf,CL 1/4 and Semi Finals,ERC Rugby Semi Finals,Premiership Hots Up,and  Something totally New .Last April served me extremely well.But can be an other difficult month if a healthy foundation has not been put in place.I must congratulate The Super League (RL) on what will be the most fantastic weekend and betting opportunity

May 2007 (Finals Month)

Champions League Final,ERC Rugby Final & FA Cup.Last May needs a good look.The previous May (2005).I lost about 2 and a half grand in about 5 days.This almost brought me to my knees and put a six month end to my blogging!Anyway will Liverpool feature?Chelsea and or Barcelona?Man U will win the Premiership and 'Winker Boy' will be Player of the Season.Almost forgot probably my favourite event of the Yr -The French Open 'Roland Garros'

June 2007

US Open Golf,Wimbledon and what the Summer is made for -Twenty20 Cricket.Was Twenty20 Cricket invented for Exchange betting or perhaps exchange betting was invented for the magic Twenty20 (add some ram,beef up your broadband and get the ice cream in).Tiger for the US Open -didn't he miss the cut last yr?Seems like a long time a go.Mickelson?Monty?Wimbledon Henman Hill or Murray Mountain?No No No -Money to be made? Yes Yes Yes

July 2007

British Open Golf,Glorious Goodwood & lots and lots of Twenty20.Sometimes difficult month for Gamblers.Time to put your feet up and count your millions?

August 2007

Aug 18th -Premiership begins,RL Challenge Cup Final,USPGA Golf and the start of the US Open,Fed + Tiger =Money Money Money.The Premiership starts again?Will Chelsea pay 50 Million for a Shevchenko replacement?Will Liverpool shell out a few Durhams for a Chelsea replacement (yeah simply buy them and shut them down).Offer Jose on Ebay?With Beckham wide on the right,Gerrard in the middle and Henry & Ronaldinho stickin them it up front the LFC currently can be backed at 1.03 to win the Premiership 2007 -certainly worth a punt?

Sept 2007 (Target Month)

Rugby World Cup 2007 -In RWC 03 how many favourites lost?Answer 1 Romania beat Uruguay or something like that,In RWC 03 -how many draws?Answer 1 -Johnny Wilkinson took care of that one.(Not sure who Johnny Wilkinson is? Click Here).Being a 'Target Month' a minimum of 1500+ pounds gross profit.One more thought -O'Gara,O'Connell,O'Driscall,Best,Murphy,Hickie,Horgan?-Just a thought!

Oct,Nov Dec 2007

Who knows?It could all be over by the end of January?But lets hope that I will be upping the stakes in the final qtr of 2007.Manu win 07 Premiership,Liverpool 08 Premiership,and Ireland win both CWC and RWC? Who knows?

Have a good yr

The Smiling Assassin

Commission Watch (29.Dec.06)

As I said previously it is very much my intention to post much more often
So today I thought I would keep you up to date with my commission problem
I currently pay just under 5% (which is far too much)
So yet again this month I have paid well over 100 pounds
For example if this level was half
Then I would have pocketed -well over 600 pounds Extra (for 2006) in pure profits (take home pay)
I have a picture that illustrates my commission for Dec 06

Anyway to more pressing matters

In my next post I will me giving a detailed break down of how I have lost well over 3 grand in the month of Dec but have managed to get all but 50 quid back again with just 2 days to go

Click below to view my latest p&l for Wed & Thurs of Week 52 2006

'The Nightmare B4 Xmas'

My New Yrs Resolution is to post everyday
Mind you last year I wasn't going to touch Chocolate until I lost my first bet of the year(3.20pm -Day 1)
So today's post is to tell ya how CRAP Dec 06 has been for me so far.
Mid way through Dec my UK wallet was down well over a grand and my Oz Wallet down near 600
Making Dec potentially the shitest month you could think of

Midway through Dec 06 -1056 and......Don't forget -Down Under

-525 Thanx to the Newly crowned 'King of the Jungle'

But Now -The Good News!

With just a few days left in 2006 I have Battled to Beat the system.With just a few days to go -I am down just a couple of hundred pounds (a fantastic comeback from such a deficit).So how to get back on top?The answer is simple -tread carefully,pick up a few quid here and there.Fortunately Hayden & Symmonds seemed to have helped.So softly softly over the next few days,If England don't win over the next few days then my 'Oz Wallet' will benefit by 75 schnoops bringing me back to within 100 pounds of winning nothing -just like Nov 06 .But as a 'would be' this is not an option.Take out Sky Subscription,pc,broadband and a possible Setanta subscription -I need to bring home the Bacon in 2007

Softly Softly Assassin

Please read on to view Boxing Day results

'It could of been worse!'

'It could of been worse!'

Week 46 -2006

In week 46 -I lost over one thousand pounds in just 7 days

That is good going!

But don't forget -I have had worse

Click below to see again the mess I made of the opening Week of 2006

As you can see -awful

But lets look at some facts

1.No matter how shite a week I had -I still lost nearly 200 pounds less than I did in Week1

2.My Commision Rate has very much improved from Week1

3.Different to W1 -I am now very much in a positive situation for 2006 (total net profits nearly 2 grand)

4.But by far the most important statistic is that there is forty five full weeks between these two horrific losses!Now compare that to the picture displayed below

'One finger, one thumb, one hand, keep moving.' -The Story of Week 46

'One finger, one thumb, one hand, keep moving.' -The Story of Week 46
Well thing more of One Conversion,One Late Goal,One putt (and one fabulous victory),Keep Loosing
The story of Week 46
All started well -was up nearly a 100 quid by Fri
Decided to have a wee punt on Nadal v Davydenko
Nadal looked to of hurt his leg -real bad
so I bet on Davydenko -200 odd schnoops
Next -Out of my 'comfort zone'
Layed the away team in the Friday Nite Football
Could of closed out -at any time- other than about the 88th minute when the away team scored
Guess what -400 odd schnoops for Fri.

This -should not have been a problem

Plenty of Rugby and some Footballing Mis Matches and I would of been back in Profit for Week 46

Sadly not to be

Bet firstly on Eng to win at rugby -this was to be their day (it had been forty yrs since they lost 7 in a row)Well so shit was the England performance in the first half -I felt that I couldn't take another 40 mins of that absolute SHITE!So I jumped ship -leaving a 300 schnoops liability on SA

It then Just got worse and worse and even worse

An extremely poor (desperate) bet on the tea time Premiership Rugby -200 odd schnoops

Over nite bet on 'Bank of Tiger' -lost over 300+ schnoops

Then bet against -my own Ireland,but I thought they would win -300 odd schnoops

Total for the Week -1000 odd quid

Broke Assassin

Recent Pay Packets (Sept & Oct)

Well Paid Assassin

As good as it gets?

As good as it gets?Pictured below are two pictures detailing  similar results from Feb-March 05 and recent weeks Sept -Oct 06.In both cases a similar result -a profit of just under 3k.However these very similar results were achieved -in very different and contrasting ways

and then my most recent results

The first picture shows Enormous losses at R Union -1900,R League-400 and Golf-900(interestingly at the time I wouldn't of recognised more than 4 of the Worlds Top Golfers -I could now name and recognise at least 40+)And Absolutely massive wins at Soccer+3000 and Tennis+1400

The second Snapshot (the most recent) has simply one stand out feature NO NEGATIVES ,every Sport  is in positive green Territory -The difference comes from nearly 3+yrs learning my 'Professional Trade' -the Art of Gambling indeed but for one small slip up on Golf I might of been talking 4k.I never remember an easier time -what I mean by that is the structure that I have been using of Starting my 'Betting Week' first thing Monday and finishing Last thing Sunday,building week-on-week and then month-on-month and uping my risk as the week progresses.Little or no risk on Mon Tues -going through to Medium risk on Fri nite,again a slightly higher risk factor on Sat and finishing the week throwing 'caution to the wind' with perhaps a back at incredible odds-sometimes as high as say 1.37 (shock,horror!)It seems to be working

Relaxed Assassin

Results for Oct 06

Results for Oct 06
Up and down and Up again!
Good start -followed by Euro 2008 qualifiers disaster (Lost nearly 1500 in just a few hrs)
But finished on the Up -with I think my biggest ever single win
Finishing Sept 06 on a massive high
+700 odd pounds

Why are there more draws in Rugby Union than Rugby League? by Stuart McIntyre

Why are there more draws in Rugby Union than  Rugby  League?

 

Backing the draw in Rugby Union can be lucrative for those who have plenty of patience, my three personal highlights being the 2005 Heineken Cup final, Lions v  Argentina in Cardiff and London Irish v Gloucester in last season’s Euro Challenge Cup final.However, Rugby League draw backers would be paupers in comparison it seems, a draw in that code being rarer than Andy Robinson talking sense at England selection meetings.

Click below to Download full article

Download rugby_union_draws.doc

'Bank of Tiger' -Week34

Week 34 -falls into all categories
Tiger Tiger Tiger
Big Cricket Loss
Biggest Single Win -over 600 schnoops on Tiger
and loads of other stuff goin on
Also big developments for www.SmilingAssassin.com.I intend to introduce a number of new features -'Glossary' obviously definitions of certain terms.'Making Money from Blogging' -hints and tips to help you bring in the dough.'Snapshots' very simply just pictures of certain P&L for weeks,months etc.And possibly the greatest development -Interactive charts to really make it easy for viewers to see the Assassin's progress through 2006.Finally a 'Weekly Average' this will be a 52 Week rolling average that gives exact details of how well or badly I am doing at any particular time.My current 'Weekly Average' stands at +60.58 (profit of over 60 pounds every week this yr) after 34 weeks of 2006 -as a point of reference my Week1 Rolling Average was -1200

Gross Profit for Week 34 (Thanx Tiger) +473

Progressive Assassin

Hard to Beat -July 06

Coming -as July does- hot on the heels of June 06 then this set of results - is indeed impressive.However a few seconds in the Italy WC Match and a Leeds Rhinos loss and I would of doubled my profit for July 06

Gross Profit for July 06 -£427

Download July.06.allbets.xls

Good Goin Assassin

'The Cry of the Tiger!' -Week 28

'The Cry of the Tiger!' -Week 28
What a player
Never looked like loosing -and neither did I
not once that week
Profit of nearly 300 schnoops
did loose one bet -but because I pressed the wrong button
Big Bucks
Profit for Week 28 -£267.00

Download DetailedResults.Week28.july.06.xls

Happy -Smiling-Professional Assassin

Week 13 -Unlucky for some

Well what a week
Mr Henman -never again
England Cricket -could do better guys!
What are the odds on Barcelona being involved in two no score draws -in a row?

Therefore by the middle of the week
I was off by nearly 400 schnoops
Time to 'batton down the hatches'
and it just goes to show what can be achieved -if you don't panic
losses recovered -and a profit of just over 100 schnoops
GP £107 Week 13 2006

Download betfair.week13.2006.+£107.xls

'Don't panic' -said the Assassin with a worried look on his face -but soon he was smiling once more

7 Goals or more...

7 Goals or more...

Anybody who follows this blog knows that my tipple of choice is to bet against the 7 Goals or more

You will also know that I am as RED as they come when it comes to Liverpool FC

Half of Liverpool's home games (this season) have ended 1-0 to the home side

Therefore it is normally a safe bet to suggest that 7 goals in any LFC match -is extremely unlikely

But tonite I felt 'something in my water' so to speak

The odds offered pre-match suggested 7 goals to be a 70/1 shot

Even 3 or more goals....the market suggested -unlikely

The Smiling Assassin

kept his hand in his pocket

and the smile on his face

Professional Assassin

Tidy Cheltenham

Tidy Cheltenham

Horse Racing: GBP546.59 | Soccer: GBP251.61 | Tennis: GBP74.20 Total P&L: GBP872.40 Horse Racing Showing 1 - 13 of 13 markets Market Open date Profit/loss (£) Horse Racing / Chelt 18th Mar : 3m2f Chs 18-Mar-05 15:15 97.77 Horse Racing / Chelt 18th Mar : 3m Nov Hrd 18-Mar-05 14:35 29.60 Horse Racing / Chelt 18th Mar : 2m nov hrd 18-Mar-05 14:00 25.78 Horse Racing / Chelt 17th Mar : 2m5f Chs 17-Mar-05 14:35 25.78 Horse Racing / Chelt 17th Mar : 2m5f Hcap Chs 17-Mar-05 14:00 49.66 Horse Racing / Chelt 16th Mar : 2m5f Hcap hrd 16-Mar-05 16:00 47.75 Horse Racing / Chelt 16th Mar : 2m Chs 16-Mar-05 15:15 33.42 Horse Racing / Chelt 16th Mar : 3m Nov Chs 16-Mar-05 14:35 28.65 Horse Racing / Chelt 16th Mar : 2m5f Nov Hrd 16-Mar-05 14:00 33.42 Horse Racing / Chelt 15th Mar : 3m Hcap Chs 15-Mar-05 16:00 57.30 Horse Racing / Chelt 15th Mar : 2m Hrd 15-Mar-05 15:15 38.20 Horse Racing / Chelt 15th Mar : 2m nov chs 15-Mar-05 14:40 36.29 Horse Racing / Chelt 15th Mar : 2m nov hrd 15-Mar-05 14:00 42.97

This I would consider to be my first week as a Professional Gambler

The reason being -that I played or rather LAYED Cheltenham like a Pro.Picking my bets -sticking to a target and a limit and not getting carried away with the occasion.All this knowing that I was going to loose on Sat when Wales beat Ireland

I was going to sign off

Professional Assassin (but this is far too scary)

So Simply

Tidy Assassin